Back to DWCS 6.7
Main Welterweight

Gabriel Bonfim vs Trey Waters

DWCS 6.7 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Gabriel Bonfim
Trey Waters
82% 18%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
77"
25
Age
Δ 2y
28

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Bonfim: 26 sig / 1 TD · Waters: 20 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Bonfim
Trey Waters
40
Sig strikes landed
32
74
Sig strikes attempted
77
59
Total strikes landed
47
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
212s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
17%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Gabriel Bonfim

"Marretinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner

Trey Waters

"The Truth"
0-0
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28