Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Sedriques Dumas
Matej Penaz
54%
46%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
83"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Dumas: 2 sig / 1 TD ·
Penaz: 1 sig / 0 TD
Sedriques Dumas
Matej Penaz
36
Sig strikes landed
37
73
Sig strikes attempted
75
54
Total strikes landed
48
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
113s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sedriques Dumas
"The Reaper"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
Matej Penaz
"Money"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
83"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26