Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Rodrigo Lidio
Mateusz Rebecki
42%
58%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 7"
66"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Lidio: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Rebecki: 0 sig / 2 TD
Rodrigo Lidio
Mateusz Rebecki
33
Sig strikes landed
36
73
Sig strikes attempted
70
48
Total strikes landed
56
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
98s
Control time
177s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Rodrigo Lidio
"Dynamis"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Mateusz Rebecki
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30