Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Yusaku Kinoshita
Jose Souza
40%
60%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 8"
79"
22
Age
Δ 2y
20
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Kinoshita: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Souza: 37 sig / 0 TD
Yusaku Kinoshita
Jose Souza
32
Sig strikes landed
41
61
Sig strikes attempted
83
44
Total strikes landed
58
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
110s
Control time
160s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Yusaku Kinoshita
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
22
Blue corner
Jose Souza
"Canela"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20