Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Muhammad Mokaev
Malcolm Gordon
86%
14%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
22
Age
Δ 10y
32
14-0
Career record
Δ 35 pp
15-8
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Mokaev: 21 sig / 6 TD ·
Gordon: 17 sig / 1 TD
Muhammad Mokaev
Malcolm Gordon
24
Sig strikes landed
13
47
Sig strikes attempted
27
69
Total strikes landed
22
3.5
Takedowns landed
0.2
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
443s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
62%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Muhammad Mokaev
"The Punisher"
14-0
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. As…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
Blue corner
W2
Malcolm Gordon
"X"
15-8
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—