Prelims1
Welterweight
Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
61%
39%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
18-4-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
13-3
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nurmagomedov: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Omargadzhiev: 38 sig / 1 TD
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
36
Sig strikes landed
26
65
Sig strikes attempted
66
54
Total strikes landed
49
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.7
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
193s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
18-4-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
Blue corner
L1
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
13-3
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—