Prelims1
Middleweight
Makhmud Muradov vs Caio Borralho
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Makhmud Muradov
Caio Borralho
52%
48%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
33
Age
Δ 3y
30
26-9
Career record
Δ 16 pp
19-2
L1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Muradov: 14 sig / 2 TD ·
Borralho: 19 sig / 1 TD
Makhmud Muradov
Caio Borralho
22
Sig strikes landed
28
50
Sig strikes attempted
52
47
Total strikes landed
43
0.6
Takedowns landed
2.3
0.5
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
92s
Control time
211s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Makhmud Muradov
26-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
W
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W2
Caio Borralho
"The Natural"
19-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—