Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Belal Muhammad
Sean Brady
52%
48%
Why
72"
Reach
72"
34
Age
Δ 4y
30
25-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-2
W7
Current streak
W5
16
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Muhammad: 80 sig / 0 TD ·
Brady: 58 sig / 0 TD
Belal Muhammad
Sean Brady
54
Sig strikes landed
55
130
Sig strikes attempted
126
84
Total strikes landed
78
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
5.7
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
196s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Belal Muhammad
"Remember the Name"
25-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
16 fights · 12-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
Blue corner
W5
Sean Brady
20-2
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—