Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Petr Yan
Sean O'Malley
57%
43%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 5"
72"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
20-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
19-3
L1
Current streak
W3
10
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Yan: 58 sig / 6 TD ·
O'Malley: 84 sig / 0 TD
Petr Yan
Sean O'Malley
69
Sig strikes landed
72
135
Sig strikes attempted
177
88
Total strikes landed
87
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.4
4.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
157s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
20-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
L
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
W3
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
19-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—