🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Aljamain Sterling vs TJ Dillashaw
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aljamain Sterling
TJ Dillashaw
82%
18%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
67"
33
Age
Δ 4y
37
27-5
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-5
W7
Current streak
W1
16
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Sterling: 72 sig / 5 TD ·
Dillashaw: 8 sig / 0 TD
Aljamain Sterling
TJ Dillashaw
85
Sig strikes landed
63
158
Sig strikes attempted
149
124
Total strikes landed
99
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
5.8
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
190s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
27-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
16 fights · 13-3
Last 5
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
Blue corner
W1
TJ Dillashaw
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
17 fights · 13-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—