🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Charles Oliveira vs Islam Makhachev
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev
·Etihad Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Charles Oliveira
Islam Makhachev
56%
44%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
38-11
Career record
Δ 19 pp
29-1
W8
Current streak
W8
30
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Oliveira: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Makhachev: 30 sig / 2 TD
Charles Oliveira
Islam Makhachev
10
Sig strikes landed
42
28
Sig strikes attempted
46
21
Total strikes landed
70
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.8
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
35s
Control time
314s
Method
Decision
9%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
74%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
30 fights · 21-8
Last 5
W
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
Blue corner
W8
Islam Makhachev
29-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 11-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier
—