Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tony Gravely
Javid Basharat
58%
42%
Why
69"
Reach
69"
31
Age
Δ 4y
27
24-9
Career record
Δ 16 pp
16-2
W2
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gravely: 33 sig / 2 TD ·
Basharat: 80 sig / 2 TD
Tony Gravely
Javid Basharat
39
Sig strikes landed
39
104
Sig strikes attempted
86
58
Total strikes landed
60
2.1
Takedowns landed
-0.1
8.3
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
179s
Control time
20s
Method
Decision
84%
KO/TKO
10%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Tony Gravely
24-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Roz…
—
W
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos…
—
Blue corner
W1
Javid Basharat
"The Snow Leopard"
16-2
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—