Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Mariya Agapova vs Gillian Robertson
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Mariya Agapova
Gillian Robertson
52%
48%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
63"
25
Age
Δ 2y
27
10-6
Career record
Δ 3 pp
17-9
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Agapova: 39 sig / 0 TD ·
Robertson: 4 sig / 3 TD
Mariya Agapova
Gillian Robertson
37
Sig strikes landed
29
71
Sig strikes attempted
54
59
Total strikes landed
56
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.2
0.4
Takedowns attempted
5.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
73s
Control time
281s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
49%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Mariya Agapova
"Money Mashka"
10-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
Blue corner
L1
Gillian Robertson
"The Savage"
17-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—