Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Trey Ogden
Daniel Zellhuber
38%
62%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
33
Age
Δ 10y
23
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Ogden: 71 sig / 1 TD ·
Zellhuber: 52 sig / 0 TD
Trey Ogden
Daniel Zellhuber
38
Sig strikes landed
46
78
Sig strikes attempted
96
53
Total strikes landed
57
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
147s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Trey Ogden
"Shamurai"
18-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
Blue corner
Daniel Zellhuber
"Golden Boy"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Switch
Age
23