Main
Middleweight
Anthony Hernandez vs Marc-Andre Barriault
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song
·Meta Apex
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Anthony Hernandez
Marc-Andre Barriault
77%
23%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
29
Age
Δ 4y
33
16-3
Career record
Δ 22 pp
18-11
W2
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Hernandez: 39 sig / 8 TD ·
Barriault: 25 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Hernandez
Marc-Andre Barriault
44
Sig strikes landed
41
91
Sig strikes attempted
87
56
Total strikes landed
63
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.4
5.7
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
194s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Anthony Hernandez
"Fluffy"
16-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Ko…
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
Blue corner
W1
Marc-Andre Barriault
"Powerbar"
18-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
8 fights · 3-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs. The …
—