Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tanner Boser
Rodrigo Nascimento
62%
38%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
23-11-1
Career record
Δ 13 pp
11-3
W1
Current streak
L1
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Boser: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Nascimento: 36 sig / 3 TD
Tanner Boser
Rodrigo Nascimento
33
Sig strikes landed
28
59
Sig strikes attempted
59
57
Total strikes landed
41
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
83s
Control time
152s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Tanner Boser
"The Bulldozer"
23-11-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ho…
—
Blue corner
L1
Rodrigo Nascimento
"Ze Colmeia"
11-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—