Prelims1
Lightweight
Gabriel Benitez vs Charlie Ontiveros
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
·Pechanga Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gabriel Benitez
Charlie Ontiveros
75%
25%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
23-14
Career record
Δ 10 pp
11-10
L2
Current streak
L2
12
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Benitez: 37 sig / 1 TD ·
Ontiveros: 22 sig / 0 TD
Gabriel Benitez
Charlie Ontiveros
43
Sig strikes landed
34
81
Sig strikes attempted
90
54
Total strikes landed
41
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
112s
Control time
25s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Gabriel Benitez
"Moggly"
23-14
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
Blue corner
L2
Charlie Ontiveros
"American Bad Boy"
11-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva
—