Prelims1
Women's Flyweight
Cynthia Calvillo vs Nina Nunes
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz
·Pechanga Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Cynthia Calvillo
Nina Nunes
56%
44%
Why
64"
Reach
64"
35
Age
Δ 2y
37
9-7-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
11-8
L3
Current streak
L2
11
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Calvillo: 48 sig / 3 TD ·
Nunes: 39 sig / 0 TD
Cynthia Calvillo
Nina Nunes
62
Sig strikes landed
63
152
Sig strikes attempted
146
82
Total strikes landed
81
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.4
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
164s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
79%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Cynthia Calvillo
9-7-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
11 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
Blue corner
L2
Nina Nunes
11-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—