Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nate Landwehr
David Onama
42%
58%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
34
Age
Δ 6y
28
19-8
Career record
Δ 13 pp
15-3
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Landwehr: 91 sig / 3 TD ·
Onama: 71 sig / 1 TD
Nate Landwehr
David Onama
55
Sig strikes landed
55
118
Sig strikes attempted
128
70
Total strikes landed
72
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
108s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Nate Landwehr
"The Train"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W2
David Onama
15-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—