Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Marlon Vera
Dominick Cruz
50%
50%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
30
Age
Δ 8y
37
24-12-1
Career record
Δ 21 pp
25-4
W3
Current streak
W2
19
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 4
Vera: 61 sig / 0 TD ·
Cruz: 92 sig / 2 TD
Marlon Vera
Dominick Cruz
75
Sig strikes landed
73
166
Sig strikes attempted
156
87
Total strikes landed
97
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.0
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.80
Knockdowns
0.10
44s
Control time
145s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
19 fights · 13-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
Blue corner
W2
Dominick Cruz
"The Dominator"
25-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—