Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Martin Buday
Lukasz Brzeski
80%
20%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
31
Age
Δ 1y
30
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Buday: 66 sig / 0 TD ·
Brzeski: 118 sig / 0 TD
Martin Buday
Lukasz Brzeski
49
Sig strikes landed
28
81
Sig strikes attempted
62
70
Total strikes landed
42
2.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
269s
Control time
47s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Martin Buday
"Badys"
17-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
Blue corner
Lukasz Brzeski
"The Bull"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30