Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Erisson Ferreira
Jesus Aguilar
59%
41%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 8"
62"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Ferreira: 14 sig / 1 TD ·
Aguilar: 24 sig / 3 TD
Erisson Ferreira
Jesus Aguilar
35
Sig strikes landed
36
93
Sig strikes attempted
81
56
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
146s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Erisson Ferreira
"Gato"
13-2
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
DWCS 5.10
—
Blue corner
Jesus Aguilar
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26