Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Amiran Gogoladze
Darrius Flowers
75%
25%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gogoladze: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Flowers: 1 sig / 0 TD
Amiran Gogoladze
Darrius Flowers
39
Sig strikes landed
32
81
Sig strikes attempted
65
56
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
129s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Amiran Gogoladze
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
Blue corner
Darrius Flowers
"Beast Mode"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28