Back to DWCS 6.3
Main Flyweight

Edgar Chairez vs Clayton Carpenter

DWCS 6.3 ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Edgar Chairez
Clayton Carpenter
65% 35%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 5"
66"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Chairez: 51 sig / 0 TD · Carpenter: 79 sig / 3 TD
Edgar Chairez
Clayton Carpenter
38
Sig strikes landed
33
79
Sig strikes attempted
70
54
Total strikes landed
42
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
173s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Edgar Chairez

"Puro Chicali"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner

Clayton Carpenter

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26