Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francis Marshall
Connor Matthews
75%
25%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
23
Age
Δ 7y
30
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Marshall: 110 sig / 6 TD ·
Matthews: 74 sig / 0 TD
Francis Marshall
Connor Matthews
38
Sig strikes landed
33
80
Sig strikes attempted
67
57
Total strikes landed
45
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Francis Marshall
"Fire"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Connor Matthews
"The Controller"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
30