Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aoriqileng
Jay Perrin
79%
21%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
67"
29
Age
29
27-13
Career record
Δ 12 pp
10-8
W1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aoriqileng: 72 sig / 0 TD ·
Perrin: 88 sig / 3 TD
Aoriqileng
Jay Perrin
62
Sig strikes landed
54
123
Sig strikes attempted
124
89
Total strikes landed
64
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.6
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
120s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Aoriqileng
"The Mongolian Murderer"
27-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
L
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Jay Perrin
"The Joker"
10-8
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
—