Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Daniel Lacerda
Victor Altamirano
56%
44%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
26
Age
Δ 5y
32
11-7
Career record
Δ 6 pp
12-6
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lacerda: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Altamirano: 58 sig / 0 TD
Daniel Lacerda
Victor Altamirano
36
Sig strikes landed
36
69
Sig strikes attempted
66
48
Total strikes landed
59
2.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
149s
Control time
142s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Daniel Lacerda
"Miojo"
11-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
Blue corner
L1
Victor Altamirano
"El Magnifico"
12-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—