Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Leonardo Santos
Jared Gordon
41%
59%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 7"
68"
42
Age
Δ 8y
34
18-8-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
21-10
L2
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Santos: 36 sig / 0 TD ·
Gordon: 116 sig / 0 TD
Leonardo Santos
Jared Gordon
35
Sig strikes landed
55
88
Sig strikes attempted
83
53
Total strikes landed
80
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
75s
Control time
196s
Method
Decision
71%
KO/TKO
16%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Leonardo Santos
18-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
10 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
Blue corner
L1
Jared Gordon
"Flash"
21-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Wal…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—