Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Alexandr Romanov
49%
51%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
37
Age
Δ 5y
32
27-12
Career record
Δ 17 pp
19-3
L1
Current streak
W5
15
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Tybura: 47 sig / 0 TD ·
Romanov: 40 sig / 2 TD
Marcin Tybura
Alexandr Romanov
36
Sig strikes landed
37
68
Sig strikes attempted
72
55
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.7
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
110s
Control time
185s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
27-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. San…
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
Blue corner
W5
Alexandr Romanov
"King Kong"
19-3
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodri…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Tei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—