Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Paulo Costa
Luke Rockhold
71%
29%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
77"
31
Age
Δ 6y
38
16-5
Career record
Δ 7 pp
16-7
L2
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Costa: 73 sig / 2 TD ·
Rockhold: 51 sig / 1 TD
Paulo Costa
Luke Rockhold
55
Sig strikes landed
43
87
Sig strikes attempted
93
66
Total strikes landed
50
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.5
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
52s
Control time
105s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Paulo Costa
"The Eraser"
16-5
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa
—
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
Blue corner
L2
Luke Rockhold
16-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
38
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
L
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—