Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Merab Dvalishvili
62%
38%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
33-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
22-5
W3
Current streak
W7
19
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Aldo: 38 sig / 0 TD ·
Dvalishvili: 57 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Merab Dvalishvili
60
Sig strikes landed
69
141
Sig strikes attempted
157
78
Total strikes landed
117
0.5
Takedowns landed
2.4
2.0
Takedowns attempted
10.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
66s
Control time
253s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Jose Aldo
33-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
19 fights · 13-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
L
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
W7
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
22-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Proc…
—
W
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—