🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Kamaru Usman vs Leon Edwards
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards
·Delta Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Leon Edwards
70%
30%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
22-4
Career record
Δ 5 pp
23-6
W8
Current streak
W8
15
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Usman: 83 sig / 5 TD ·
Edwards: 55 sig / 1 TD
Kamaru Usman
Leon Edwards
73
Sig strikes landed
60
142
Sig strikes attempted
138
126
Total strikes landed
83
2.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
7.7
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
346s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 15-0
Last 5
W
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2
—
W
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
W8
Leon Edwards
"Rocky"
23-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
14 fights · 11-2
Last 5
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—