Back to UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Prelims1 Middleweight

Dwight Grant vs Dustin Stoltzfus

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez ·UBS Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Dwight Grant
Dustin Stoltzfus
37% 63%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
38
Age
Δ 7y
31
11-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
16-9
L2
Current streak
L3
7
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Grant: 52 sig / 0 TD · Stoltzfus: 49 sig / 2 TD
Dwight Grant
Dustin Stoltzfus
37
Sig strikes landed
40
94
Sig strikes attempted
94
51
Total strikes landed
61
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.7
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
21s
Control time
200s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Dwight Grant

"The Body Snatcher"
11-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
38
In our database 7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
W UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
—
L UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—
W UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
Blue corner
L3

Dustin Stoltzfus

16-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
L UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
—