Back to UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Jessica Penne vs Emily Ducote

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez ·UBS Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Jessica Penne
Emily Ducote
43% 57%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
63"
40
Age
Δ 11y
28
W2
Current streak
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6
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Penne: 63 sig / 0 TD · Ducote: 116 sig / 0 TD
Jessica Penne
Emily Ducote
40
Sig strikes landed
42
99
Sig strikes attempted
83
72
Total strikes landed
70
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
198s
Control time
113s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Jessica Penne

15-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database 6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
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W UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
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L UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
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L UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
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L UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
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Blue corner

Emily Ducote

"Gordinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29