Prelims1
Middleweight
Punahele Soriano vs Dalcha Lungiambula
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
·UBS Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Punahele Soriano
Dalcha Lungiambula
73%
27%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
13-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
11-7
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Soriano: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Lungiambula: 11 sig / 2 TD
Punahele Soriano
Dalcha Lungiambula
42
Sig strikes landed
37
83
Sig strikes attempted
78
57
Total strikes landed
49
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
112s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Punahele Soriano
"Puna"
13-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. K…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
Blue corner
L2
Dalcha Lungiambula
"Champion"
11-7
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—