Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ricky Simon
Jack Shore
52%
48%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
30
Age
Δ 2y
27
23-7-1
Career record
Δ 12 pp
18-3
W4
Current streak
W5
9
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Simon: 25 sig / 2 TD ·
Shore: 19 sig / 0 TD
Ricky Simon
Jack Shore
37
Sig strikes landed
47
81
Sig strikes attempted
93
56
Total strikes landed
77
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.6
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
121s
Control time
137s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Ricky Simon
23-7-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
9 fights · 7-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Mag…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teix…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
Blue corner
W5
Jack Shore
"Tank"
18-3
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Asp…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—