Main
Women's Flyweight
Lauren Murphy vs Miesha Tate
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
·UBS Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Lauren Murphy
Miesha Tate
53%
47%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
39
Age
Δ 3y
36
16-8
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-11
L1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Murphy: 102 sig / 2 TD ·
Tate: 85 sig / 0 TD
Lauren Murphy
Miesha Tate
60
Sig strikes landed
59
136
Sig strikes attempted
136
91
Total strikes landed
86
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.5
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
170s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Lauren Murphy
"Lucky"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
12 fights · 7-5
Last 5
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
W
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes
—
Blue corner
L1
Miesha Tate
"Cupcake"
20-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—