Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Bill Algeo
Herbert Burns
65%
35%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
19-9
Career record
Δ 7 pp
11-7
W1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Algeo: 28 sig / 1 TD ·
Burns: 10 sig / 1 TD
Bill Algeo
Herbert Burns
35
Sig strikes landed
32
71
Sig strikes attempted
67
62
Total strikes landed
46
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.0
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
138s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Bill Algeo
"Senor Perfecto"
19-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Rakic
—
Blue corner
L1
Herbert Burns
"The Blaze"
11-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3
—
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—