Main
Women's Strawweight
Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs Amanda Lemos
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez
·UBS Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Amanda Lemos
43%
57%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 3"
65"
36
Age
Δ 1y
35
18-14
Career record
Δ 9 pp
15-7-1
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Waterson-Gomez: 29 sig / 1 TD ·
Lemos: 20 sig / 0 TD
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Amanda Lemos
47
Sig strikes landed
49
92
Sig strikes attempted
102
67
Total strikes landed
74
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.5
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
160s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18-14
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. H…
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L1
Amanda Lemos
15-7-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dauk…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edg…
—