Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Brian Ortega
Yair Rodriguez
45%
55%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
31
Age
Δ 2y
30
16-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
21-7
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ortega: 22 sig / 1 TD ·
Rodriguez: 23 sig / 0 TD
Brian Ortega
Yair Rodriguez
71
Sig strikes landed
83
163
Sig strikes attempted
180
89
Total strikes landed
89
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
98s
Control time
66s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 7-2
Last 5
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
Blue corner
L1
Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
21-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 8-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. R…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—