Prelims1
Lightweight
John Makdessi vs Nasrat Haqparast
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa
·Accor Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Makdessi
Nasrat Haqparast
33%
67%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
37
Age
Δ 10y
27
19-9
Career record
Δ 4 pp
18-7
W1
Current streak
L2
18
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Makdessi: 73 sig / 0 TD ·
Haqparast: 64 sig / 2 TD
John Makdessi
Nasrat Haqparast
72
Sig strikes landed
69
143
Sig strikes attempted
166
80
Total strikes landed
73
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.1
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
36s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
19-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
18 fights · 11-7
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
Blue corner
L2
Nasrat Haqparast
18-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
L
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Mu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Olei…
—
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—