Back to UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa
Prelims1 Middleweight

Abus Magomedov vs Dustin Stoltzfus

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa ·Accor Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Abus Magomedov
Dustin Stoltzfus
82% 18%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 3"
75"
32
Age
Δ 1y
31
—
Current streak
W1
0
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Magomedov: 7 sig / 0 TD · Stoltzfus: 0 sig / 0 TD
Abus Magomedov
Dustin Stoltzfus
44
Sig strikes landed
37
95
Sig strikes attempted
91
61
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
103s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Abus Magomedov

0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
W1

Dustin Stoltzfus

17-8
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
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