Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Robert Whittaker
Marvin Vettori
71%
29%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
27-10
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-10-1
L1
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Whittaker: 74 sig / 1 TD ·
Vettori: 33 sig / 0 TD
Robert Whittaker
Marvin Vettori
73
Sig strikes landed
76
164
Sig strikes attempted
159
90
Total strikes landed
91
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.6
2.1
Takedowns attempted
5.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
54s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
27-10
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
18 fights · 14-4
Last 5
L
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—
Blue corner
W1
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
20-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vett…
—
L
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—