Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ciryl Gane
Tai Tuivasa
71%
29%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 6"
75"
32
Age
Δ 3y
30
13-3
Career record
Δ 20 pp
16-10
L1
Current streak
W5
8
UFC fights in our DB
11
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Gane: 110 sig / 0 TD ·
Tuivasa: 29 sig / 0 TD
Ciryl Gane
Tai Tuivasa
58
Sig strikes landed
38
85
Sig strikes attempted
78
63
Total strikes landed
45
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
77s
Control time
69s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
60%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ciryl Gane
"Bon Gamin"
13-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
L
UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
W
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno
—
Blue corner
W5
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
16-10
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker…
—
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
W
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ho…
—
W
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—