Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
William Gomis
Jarno Errens
68%
32%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Gomis: 32 sig / 3 TD ·
Errens: 20 sig / 0 TD
William Gomis
Jarno Errens
37
Sig strikes landed
40
75
Sig strikes attempted
71
51
Total strikes landed
46
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
131s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
William Gomis
"Jaguar"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
Blue corner
Jarno Errens
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28