Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Terrance McKinney
Erick Gonzalez
72%
28%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
28
Age
Δ 3y
30
18-9
Career record
Δ 6 pp
14-9
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
McKinney: 18 sig / 1 TD ·
Gonzalez: 9 sig / 0 TD
Terrance McKinney
Erick Gonzalez
31
Sig strikes landed
14
59
Sig strikes attempted
41
47
Total strikes landed
28
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.50
Knockdowns
0.00
107s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
33%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Terrance McKinney
"T. Wrecks"
18-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ank…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. …
—
W
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Erick Gonzalez
"The Ghost Pepper"
14-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont
—