Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Sam Alvey
Michal Oleksiejczuk
50%
50%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
36
Age
Δ 9y
28
33-19-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
22-10
L3
Current streak
L1
23
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Alvey: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Oleksiejczuk: 22 sig / 0 TD
Sam Alvey
Michal Oleksiejczuk
39
Sig strikes landed
45
79
Sig strikes attempted
84
43
Total strikes landed
55
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.1
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.70
33s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
20%
KO/TKO
69%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33-19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
23 fights · 10-12
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ch…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Ho…
—
D
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje
—
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
L1
Michal Oleksiejczuk
"Hussar"
22-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
W
UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—