Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Augusto Sakai
Serghei Spivac
47%
53%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
31
Age
Δ 4y
28
16-6-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
19-6
L3
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Sakai: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Spivac: 33 sig / 6 TD
Augusto Sakai
Serghei Spivac
39
Sig strikes landed
39
76
Sig strikes attempted
90
64
Total strikes landed
57
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
73s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Augusto Sakai
16-6-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
Blue corner
W1
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
19-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Le…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs.…
—