Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vicente Luque
Geoff Neal
69%
31%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
75"
31
Age
Δ 1y
32
24-13-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
17-8
L1
Current streak
W1
18
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Luque: 97 sig / 0 TD ·
Neal: 121 sig / 1 TD
Vicente Luque
Geoff Neal
75
Sig strikes landed
67
149
Sig strikes attempted
135
85
Total strikes landed
74
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
79s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
24-13-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
18 fights · 14-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muha…
—
W
UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane
—
W
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Sh…
—
W
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
Blue corner
W1
Geoff Neal
"Handz of Steel"
17-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. N…
—
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—