Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mohammed Usman
Zac Pauga
70%
30%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Usman: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Pauga: 32 sig / 0 TD
Mohammed Usman
Zac Pauga
36
Sig strikes landed
31
73
Sig strikes attempted
66
55
Total strikes landed
43
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
142s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mohammed Usman
"The Motor"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner
Zac Pauga
"The High Chief"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34